U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), dropped by 8.6 million barrels from the week ending October 2 to the week ending October 9. That’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on October 15 and included data for the week ending October 9. Commercial crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, came in at 415.577 million barrels on October 9, 424.134 million barrels on October 2, and 423.785 million barrels on October 10, 2025, the report revealed. Crude oil stocks dropped by 2.0 percent week on week and by 1.9 percent year on year, the report outlined.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 283.0 million barrels on October 9 and October 2, and 407.7 million barrels on October 10, 2025, the report outlined. Although the October 9 figure was flat week on week, it represented a decrease of 30.6 percent year on year, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.507 billion barrels on October 9, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 13.4 million barrels week on week and down 189.6 million barrels year on year, the report revealed. “Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels, three percent below the five-year average,” the EIA stated in its latest weekly petroleum status report.
“Gasoline inventories increased 3.5 million barrels, four percent below the five-year average. Distillate inventories decreased 2.5 million barrels, 12 percent below the five-year average,” it added. “Propane/propylene inventories decreased 1.5 million barrels, 15 percent above the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 13.4 million barrels for the week,” it continued. For the week ending October 09, U.S. refineries “processed 16.6 million barrels per day, up 135,000 barrels per day from the previous week, at 93.5 percent capacity utilization,” the report outlined. Gasoline output averaged 9.2 million barrels per day and distillate production decreased to 5.2 million barrels per day, the report noted. Crude oil imports decreased by 791,000 barrels per day to 6.0 million barrels per day, according to the EIA’s report, which pointed out that the four-week average of 6.1 million barrels per day is 0.9 percent above the year-ago level. “Gasoline imports averaged 508,000 barrels per day; distillate imports averaged 145,000 barrels per day,” the EIA highlighted.
Over the past four weeks, total product supplied averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, the report stated, noting that this was up 2.0 percent year over year. “The four-week average for gasoline product supplied decreased 0.4 percent year over year to 8.7 million barrels per day, while the four-week average for distillate product supplied decreased 0.2 percent to 4.0 million barrels per day,” the EIA’s report stated. “The four-week average for jet fuel product supplied increased 2.3 percent year over year,” it added.
Analyst Views
In a statement posted on his X page on Friday analyzing the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, highlighted that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels last week, “the largest draw since February, partly reflecting production shut-ins caused by Hurricane Isaias”. “The disruption also contributed to a 0.3 million barrel per day decline in U.S. crude production to 13.68 million barrels per day, the lowest since May,” he added. “Meanwhile, gasoline stocks rose by 3.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million barrels, the lowest seasonal level on record,” he continued.
Hansen went on to pointed out that diesel production “rose to a seasonal record of 5.2 million barrels per day while exports reached 1.4 million barrels per day, their highest seasonal level since 2013, highlighting strong overseas demand amid persistent global supply tightness”. “Refinery crude runs rebounded to a fresh seasonal record, while four-week average implied gasoline demand declined by 100,000 barrels per day, contrasting with a 200,000 barrel per day increase in distillate demand,” Hansen noted. Hansen went on to state that the EIA report “reinforces the divergence between gasoline where demand is easing and an increasingly tight diesel market, where strong domestic consumption and elevated exports continue to drain already depleted inventories”. In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, pointed out that, on Thursday, Brent settled at $105.92 per barrel, “down 0.13 percent”, while WTI “surged 3.03 percent to $97.97 following an unexpected 8.6 million barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories”. “We believe the sharp inventory draw signals stronger near-term physical demand, although broader concerns about global consumption and future supply availability continue to create volatility across energy markets,” Aslam noted in the analysis.
Large Crude Draw Expected
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Macquarie Energy Strategist Walt Chancellor, outlined that they were expecting a “large” crude draw in the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report, “amidst Gulf shut-ins, low imports, [and] high exports”. “We are forecasting U.S. crude inventories down 9.1 million barrels for the week ending October 9,” the strategists revealed in their report. “This follows a 3.2 million barrel draw for the week ending October 2, with last week’s crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” they added. “While our balances point to pronounced tightness in this week’s crude stat, following last week’s surprisingly bullish figure, we note some potential for a catch-up to the softer side,” they continued. “In any event, for this week’s crude balance, we look for a small increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day); at ~16.6 million barrels per day, this figure would be up sharply (+1.4 million barrels per day) over the same week last year,” they went on to state. Looking “among net imports”, the strategists revealed that they were modeling “a large reduction, with exports (-0.3 million barrels per day) and imports (-1.1 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis”.
The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remained a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance. “From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj. +transfers), we look for a slight increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) following a soft print last week,” the strategists said in the report. “Notably, we are assuming large impacts due to Gulf shut-ins in this figure, but timing relative to observed stock changes could also inject volatility into the crude balance,” they added. “Rounding out the picture, we model a small SPR draw (-0.5 million barrels) for the week ending October 9,” they said. The strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they looked for “across-the-board draws this week (gasoline/ distillate/jet -2.2/-1.3/-0.6 million barrels)”. “We model implied demand for these products at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending 10/9,” they highlighted.
source: rigzone.com